Monday, October 17, 2011
Special Issue of Climatic Change on RCP Scenarios
A little while ago I blogged about van Vuuren et al.'s paper that provides an overview of the new emissions scenarios - called RCPs - that will be used in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report (AR5). You can now access all the papers in the special issue from a summary page. I think that these are all open access papers. There is also a special issue on the way the AR5 will deal with uncertainty. A number of these papers are open access.
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I wonder if you can point me to sections in the new RCPs where they actually show the profiles for the respective uptakes of atmospheric CO2 for each RCP, or am I right that these uptakes are simply assumed to be nil, constant, or declining by 2030 and eventually ceasing (as in Garnaut 2008 Fig.2.7 based on Karoly Enting et al CASPI 2008)? None of the texts you link to actually show the full carbon cycle, as their implicit assumption is that emissions equal increase in atmospheric concentration.
ReplyDeleteIn reality of course, the uptakes have risen pro rata with rising atmospheric CO2, but that inconvenient truth is typically suppressed by the likes of Canadell (2007), Wigley and his MAGICCs (passim), all the RCPs, and Garnaut et al.
The explanations for the actual rising uptakes are (1) most plant life thrives better in warmer than in cooler climes, and (2) rising atmospheric CO2 raises the partial pressure of CO2 at ground level, thereby facilitating photosynthesis.
Any hope of seeing recognition of (1) and (2) in any AR5 WG? No, I thought not!
BTW, as you know I commented in more detail on the lacunae in van Vuuren et al at your thread thereon, and you did not make any specific response in your comment on mine (other than noting my redundant y’s in the trend formulae).